Since hitting an all-time high of over 1,900 an ounce in 2011, gold has mostly struggled to regain its luster. The precious yellow metal suffered through a multiyear downtrend through 2015, and it only recently logged its longest consistent closing streak above 1,300 per ounce-- albeit a stronger dollar of late has pushed gold near its 2018 lows.
Having been a bit of a gold stock maven for years, Ive come to the determination that a price-to-cash flow per share of about 10 is considered fair. Any gold stock trading at more than 10 times its future cash flow per share is potentially pricey, while gold stocks well below 10 times next years cash flow per share could be a bargain.
With this in mind, here are a handful of gold stocks that look to be screaming bargains based on their future cash flow per share.
Though its had a bit of tainted past, Kinross Gold NYSEKGC might finally be ready to shake off its rust. Kinross Golds issues derive from its acquisition of Red Back Mining, which owned the Mauritania-based Tasiast mine, for more than 7 billion in 2010. Essentially, Kinross acquired this mine at the peak of the gold-price craze. The end result was Kinross writing down about 80 of the value of the deal, as well as delaying the build-out of this prized mine.
However, times are a-changing for Kinross, and a cluster of new projects are set to come online in the coming few years. In particular, the Tasiast phase one project remains on track for completion by the end of this month. Once finished, Tasiast will have boosted its throughput capacity to 12,000 tons per day. In doing so, Tasiasts output should grow by about 60 to 400,000 ounces of gold production annually, relative to the approximately 250,000 ounces per year its currently generating.
Kinross also has plans to complete a massive phase two expansion at Tasiast that could practically double its annual production from where itll soon be and crank up its throughput capacity to 30,000 tons per day. Such planning is still in the very early stages, but by the mid-2020s, Kinross could see a major uptick in annual gold production.
More importantly, with Tasiasts expansion imminent, as well as other projects remaining on track and within budget -- e.g., Round Mountain Phase W and the Bald Mountain Vantage Complex -- Kinross should see its all-in sustaining costs on a gold equivalent ounce basis fall over time. This means even more in cash flow for Kinross as time goes on. While I understand the leeriness of Wall Street to trust in Kinross Golds management team, this has all the signs of a long-term turnaround in the making.
Similar to Kinross, Toronto-based Yamana Gold NYSEAUY was a bit overzealous with its early-decade mine expansion, and even some of its mid-decade acquisitions. It wound up taking on quite a bit of debt and has been spending the last couple of years modestly paring down its debt levels to more manageable levels. However, the company now looks poised to benefit from bringing a number of new mines online in the years to come.
In addition to organic expansion at the companys Chapada and Canadian Malartic mines -- Canadian Malartic is jointly owned with Agnico-Eagle Mines-- Yamana is leaning on a number of new projects to do the heavy intermediate-term lifting. One such asset is the Cerro Moro mine, which entered commercial production in April of this year. Yamana anticipates that Cerro Moro will produce 85,000 ounces of gold and 3.75 million ounces of silver in 2018, with an average full year expected to generate 130,000 ounces of gold and 7 million ounces of silver.
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